Author Archives: M

Latin Times: U.S. Food System in Peril as Deportation Policies Spark Exodus of Undocumented Workers From Industry: Report

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Immigrants make up about 20% of the entire food sector workforce—some 14 million people—including 27% of agricultural workers and 33% of meatpackers

A growing labor shortage triggered by increased immigration enforcement is threatening the stability of the U.S. food system, according to a report by The Guardian. As undocumented workers leave jobs or avoid public life out of fear of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids, disruptions are mounting from farms to restaurants nationwide.

In Texas, farmers contacted by the news outlet report that longtime laborers are staying home, fearing arrest and deportation, while in Los Angeles, restaurants and food trucks are shutting down as kitchen and service staff disappear.

“They are scared, there are fewer opportunities, and they are no longer prospering here,” said Elizabeth Rodriguez, director of farm worker advocacy at the National Farm Worker Ministry to The Guardian. “Their fear will soon be seen in the harvest, when the quantities of produce are depleted.”

Immigrants make up about 20% of the entire food sector workforce—some 14 million people—including 27% of agricultural workers and 33% of meatpackers. In restaurants, nearly half of all chefs and nearly a third of cooks are foreign-born, most commonly from Mexico, China, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

“These workers are the backbone of the food chain,” said Mark Lauritsen, a vice president at the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union. “Without a stable, skilled workforce, safety and quality can decline, shelves can sit empty and grocery prices could rise even more.”

These jobs are often low-paid and physically demanding. Farmworkers are frequently paid per box of produce, working long hours in extreme heat with limited protections. Nearly half of the most strenuous food industry jobs are filled by undocumented workers.

Amid mounting criticism, officials have suggested the administration is considering exceptions for certain sectors. Tom Homan, White House border advisor, recently confirmed that discussions are underway about policy adjustments for farm and hospitality workers.

President Trump, on his part, has proposed allowing farmers to vouch for migrant workers to avoid deportation.”If a farmer is willing to vouch for these people… I think we’re going to have to just say that’s going to be good,” he recently said at an event at the Iowa State Fairgrounds

U.S. Food System in Peril as Deportation Policies Spark Exodus of Undocumented Workers From Industry: Report
Immigrants make up about 20% of the entire food sector workforce—some 14 million people—including 27% of agricultural workers and 33% of meatpackers

https://www.latintimes.com/us-food-system-peril-deportation-policies-spark-exodus-undocumented-workers-industry-report-587105

Law & Crime: ‘Violates the First Amendment’: Judge bars Trump admin from imposing sanctions on US human rights advocates who work for international court

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A federal judge in Maine on Friday barred the Trump administration from enforcing sanctions on two U.S. citizens and human rights advocates who work with the International Criminal Court (ICC).

On April 11, Matthew Smith and Akila Radhakrishnan, a human rights nonprofit leader and lawyer, respectively, filed a 39-page lawsuit against President Donald Trump and several other members of his administration over an executive order that imposes sanctions on the ICC, prohibits certain interactions with designated ICC officials, and threatens both civil and criminal penalties for any such violations.

The lawsuit was premised on the idea that the sanctions “violate their First Amendment rights, and those of others like them, by prohibiting their constitutionally protected speech.” The plaintiffs, in late April, requested a preliminary injunction barring the government “from imposing civil or criminal penalties on them” for “provision of speech-based services” to the ICC’s Office of the Prosecutor (OTP).

Now, U.S. District Judge Nancy Torresen, a Barack Obama appointee, has granted that requested relief in a 16-page order.

“[T]he Executive Order appears to burden substantially more speech than necessary,” the judge wrote. “Accordingly, the Plaintiffs have established likely success on the merits of their First Amendment challenge.”

The government argued Trump’s order advanced a “compelling” and “important” interest in “protecting the personnel of the United States and its allies from investigation, arrest, detention, and prosecution by the ICC without the consent of the United States or its allies.”

The judge, however, found the executive order too broadly written and mused that it “appears to restrict substantially more speech than necessary to further that end.”

In Executive Order 14203, titled, “Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court,” the 45th and 47th president said he was motivated by the ICC’s “illegitimate and baseless actions targeting America and [its] close ally Israel.”

The court takes stock of the president’s cited justification for issuing the sanctions, at length:

The Executive Order condemns the ICC’s investigations of U.S. and Israeli personnel and its issuance of arrest warrants for Israel’s current Prime Minister and former Minister of Defense. The Executive Order, emphasizing that neither the U.S. nor Israel is a party to the ICC’s founding treaty, asserts that the ICC’s conduct “threatens to infringe upon” U.S. sovereignty and “undermin[es]” the “critical national security and foreign policy work” of the United States, Israel, and other U.S. allies

But, the court notes, the plaintiffs’ work has nothing to do with the United States or Israel. Rather, the court explains, Smith’s work has focused on “the OTP’s investigation and prosecution of atrocity crimes against the ethnic minority Rohingya people in the People’s Republic of Bangladesh and the Republic of the Union of Myanmar.” And Radhakrishnan’s work has focused on “matters involving sexual and gender-based violence, particularly in Afghanistan.”

The judge then applies the executive order as written to the facts alleged by the plaintiff’s about their work for the ICC’s OTP.

“The Executive Order broadly prohibits any speech-based services that benefit the Prosecutor, regardless of whether those beneficial services relate to an ICC investigation of the United States, Israel, or another U.S. ally,” the order reads. “The Government does not explain how its stated interest would be undermined—or even impacted—by the Plaintiffs’ services to the OTP related to the ICC’s ongoing work in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Afghanistan.”

Torresen goes on to say the plaintiffs’ “irreparable injury is presumed” due to the nature of a First Amendment claim. Here, the judge is essentially saying a violation of the free speech guarantee in the nation’s founding charter is a sufficient injury alone – and does not need to be extensively analyzed.

Notably, while the court notes the plaintiffs alleged Trump’s order “violates the First Amendment” and was in excess of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the court did not reach the IEEPA claim.

Finally, the judge balanced the equities – pitting the plaintiffs’ First Amendment injury against the defendant’s interest in “national security and foreign policy interests.” Again, the human rights advocates came out on top.

“I find the Government’s argument unpersuasive,” Torresen intones. “First, the Government has at least implied that injunctive relief is unnecessary because it does not intend to enforce the Executive Order against the Plaintiffs at all. It is hard to square that position with the Government’s assertion that an injunction would impede national security and foreign policy interests.”

In other words, the court says the government is trying to have things both ways by insisting they would never target the plaintiffs while also arguing an order barring them from going after the plaintiffs would be detrimental.

The court then returns to the factual record of the executive order’s stated goals and the plaintiff’s actual human rights work.

“Second, even putting that inconsistency aside, I find the Government’s argument unpersuasive for the same reasons that I find Section 3(a) fails intermediate scrutiny,” the order goes on. “The Government does not explain how the Plaintiffs’ continued services to the Prosecutor concerning atrocities in Bangladesh, Myanmar, or Afghanistan would impede national security and foreign policy interests concerning the United States and Israel.”

The court, in the end, barred the government from sanctioning the plaintiffs for their work with the ICC’s OTP.

“The Government is hereby enjoined from imposing civil or criminal penalties on the Plaintiffs under Executive Order 14203,” the order concludes.

Judge bars Trump admin from imposing sanctions on US human rights advocates
“The Executive Order broadly prohibits any speech-based services that benefit the Prosecutor, regardless of whether those beneficial services relate to an ICC investigation of the United States.”
‘Violates the First Amendment’: Judge bars Trump admin from imposing sanctions on US human rights advocates who work for International Criminal Court

The Hill: Homan slams ‘buffoon’ Nadler over comments on ICE agent attacks

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Border czar Tom Homan slammed Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) on Saturday over a comment the New York congressman made about assaults on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.

“What attacks on ICE agents?” Nadler asked in a clip that aired on Fox News.

“This buffoon knows exactly what attacks — his party is the one encouraging them,” Homan responded on X. “ICE agents are facing an 830% increase in assaults because of smears from the left. Their words have consequences. We won’t let them pretend they don’t.”

Drama often, Pugsley Homan? The only buffoon here is you, Pugsley Homan.

An 830% increase of almost none is still almost none.

And given how your masked Gestapo thugs are treating my fellow Americans, I could care less if a few of them banged up and scratched. They’re getting the response that they deserve. Fuck ’em!

ICE enforcement actions have been met by protesters in several high-profile incidents, most recently in Camarillo, Calif., where 200 people without legal status in the U.S. were arrested in a raid at a marijuana farm. Agents used tear gas to disperse protesters, and one person died after falling from a roof during the raid.

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials have also targeted Democratic lawmakers on the basis of claims they have attacked immigration officers.

Rep. LaMonica Iver (D-N.J.), for example, pleaded not guilty to an assault charge stemming from an incident where her elbows appeared to come into contact with an officer during a crowded scene.

In his response to Nadler, Homan cited a DHS statistic released last week, claiming assaults against ICE agents are at an 830 percent increase, more than double the 413 percent increase it claimed in May. The agency claims that Democratic officials and media reports have encouraged assaults against agents.

Homan slams ‘buffoon’ Nadler over comments on ICE agent attacks
Border czar Tom Homan slammed Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) on Saturday over a comment the New York congressman made about assaults on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. “What attacks on ICE…

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5410275-homan-slams-buffoon-nadler-over-comments-on-ice-agent-attacks

L.A. Times: Immigration arrest outside Oregon preschool rattles parents

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Parents at a preschool in a Portland suburb are reeling after immigration officers arrested a father in front of the school during morning drop-off hours, breaking his car window to detain him in front of children, families and staffers.

“I feel like a day care, which is where young children are taken care of, should be a safe place,” Natalie Berning said after dropping off her daughter at the Montessori in Beaverton on Friday morning. “Not only is it traumatizing for the family, it’s traumatizing for all the other children as well.”

Mahdi Khanbabazadeh, a 38-year-old chiropractor and citizen of Iran, was initially pulled over by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers while driving his child to the school Tuesday. After asking whether he could drop off the child first, he continued driving and called his wife to tell her what happened, according to his wife, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of privacy concerns for her and her child.

His wife rushed to the school, took their child from his car and brought him inside. Khanbabazadeh stayed in the vehicle in the parking lot and asked whether he could move somewhere not on school grounds out of consideration for the children and families, his wife said. He pulled out of the lot and onto the street and began to open the car door to step out when agents broke the window and took him into custody, according to his wife.

Kellie Burns, who has two children attending the preschool, said her husband was there and heard the glass shatter.

“More than anything we want to express how unnecessarily violent and inhumane this was,” she said. “Everyone felt helpless. Everyone was scared.”

ICE said it detained Khanbabazadeh because he overstayed his visa, which his wife disputes.

“Officers attempted to arrest Khanbabazadeh during a traffic stop when he requested permission to drop his child off at daycare,” ICE said in a statement. “Officers allowed him to proceed to the daycare parking lot where he stopped cooperating, resisted arrest and refused to exit his vehicle, resulting in ICE officers making entry by breaking one of the windows to complete the arrest.”

Immigration officials have dramatically ramped up arrests across the country since May. Shortly after President Trump took office in January, his administration lifted restrictions on making immigration arrests at schools, healthcare facilities and places of worship, stirring fears about going to places once considered safe spaces.

After U.S. military strikes on Iran in June, officials trumpeted immigration arrests of Iranians, some of whom settled in the United States long ago.

Khanbabazadeh’s wife said he has always maintained lawful status. After he arrived on a valid student visa and they subsequently married, she said, they submitted all required paperwork to adjust his status and were waiting for a final decision following their green card interview months ago.

Khanbabazadeh is being held at the ICE detention facility in Tacoma, Wash., she said.

Guidepost Global Education, which oversees the Montessori school, called the incident “deeply upsetting.”

“We understand that this incident raises broader questions about how law enforcement actions intersect with school environments,” Chief Executive Maris Mendes said in a statement. “It is not lost on us how frightening and confusing this experience may have been for those involved — especially for the young children who may have witnessed it while arriving at school with their parents.”

Parents said they want to support the family and teachers.

“We know it’s happening across the country, of course, but no one is prepared for their preschool … to deal with it,” Burns said. “It’s really been a nightmare.”

Immigration arrest outside Oregon preschool rattles parents
Parents at a preschool in Oregon are reeling after immigration officers arrested a father in front of the school. ‘Everyone felt helpless. Everyone was scared,’ said one.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2025-07-19/immigration-arrest-outside-oregon-preschool-rattles-parents

Fortune: Buried in Trump’s beautiful bill is a new $250 fee on travelers to the U.S. Estimates project it could cut the federal deficit by nearly $30 billion

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Visitors to the United States will need to pay a new fee to enter the country, according to the Trump administration’s recently enacted bill.

A provision in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act states all visitors who need nonimmigrant visas to enter the U.S.—tourists, business travelers and international students, to name a few—must pay a “visa integrity fee,” currently priced at $250. The fee cannot be waived or reduced, but travelers are able to get their fees reimbursed, the provision states.

All told, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the new fee could cut the federal deficit by $28.9 billion over the next ten years. During the same period, the CBO expects the Department of the State to issue about 120 million nonimmigrant visas. 

In 2023 alone, more than 10.4 million nonimmigrants were issued visas, according to DOS data. CBO expects a “small number” of people will seek reimbursement, as many nonimmigrant visas are valid for several years. 

CBO also expects the Department of State would need several years to implement a process for providing reimbursements. Still, the fee could generate billions, the agency estimates.

The fee is set at $250 during the U.S. fiscal year 2025, which ends Sept. 30, and must be paid when the visa is issued, according to the provision. The secretary of Homeland Security can set the current fee higher, the provision states. During each subsequent fiscal year, the fee will be adjusted for inflation.

Those eligible for reimbursement are visa holders who comply with conditions of the visa, which include not accepting unauthorized employment or not overstaying their visa validity date by more than five days, according to the provision.

Senior Equity Analyst at CFRA Research Ana Garcia told Fortune in an email she expects the “vast majority” of affected travelers to be eligible for reimbursement, as historical U.S. Congressional Research Service data indicates that only 1% to 2% of nonimmigrant visitors overstayed their visas between 2016 and 2022.

“The fee’s design as a refundable security deposit, contingent upon visa compliance, should mitigate concerns among legitimate travelers.” Garcia wrote.

Reimbursements will be made after the travel visa expires, the provision said. Any fees not reimbursed will be deposited into America’s Checkbook, or the General Fund of the Government.

What’s unclear is the effective date of the “visa integrity fee.” 

Steven A. Brown, a partner at the Houston-based immigration law firm Reddy Neumann Brown PC, wrote in a post on his firm’s website the fee’s “specific start dates have not yet been confirmed.”

Brown points out that the fee is an add-on to others already required by U.S. travelers.

“For example, an H-1B worker already paying a $205 application fee may now expect to pay a total of $455 once this fee is in place,” Brown wrote. 

Most travelers are also required to pay a fee that comes with submitting a Form 1-94 arrival and departure record. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act increased this charge from $6 to $24.

CFRA’s Garcia expects demand to be unmoved by the fee, considering “higher-income” consumers comprise the majority of international leisure and business travelers to the U.S.

“For affluent travelers, the additional $250 represents a manageable increment relative to overall trip costs,” Garcia wrote. “The fee structure appears strategically designed to enhance compliance rather than broadly restrict travel.”

Just one more incentive not to visit the U.S.A., on top their other recent anti-social behavior, such as detaining and eventually deporting visitors for minor issues on entry.

Who needs to visit America when there are plenty of welcoming countries around the world?

In the last 20 years I’ve visited Europe and Asia >50 times and have paid an entry fee only once ($50 for Turkey), plus a few very small Electronic Travel Authority (ETA) fees for Australia. I visit only countries that don’t cost us a lot of extra money & hassle to visit.

The reciprocal fees that other countries eventually will impose will be real deal killers for many travelers. Imagine visiting 4 countries and having to deposit $4K in such fees for a family of 4.

Trump’s big beautiful bill includes a $250 ‘visa integrity fee’ travelers will have to fork over
Tourists, business travelers, and international students will be required to fork over the new fee.

https://fortune.com/2025/07/19/donald-trump-big-beautiful-bill-airline-visa-air-travel-business-congress-inflation

Washington Post: Couple allege ICE arrested them after pretending to be cops in ruse

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The two LSU students say the agents claimed to have questions about a hit-and-run incident to lure them out of their apartment.

Parisa Firouzabadi and Pouria Pourhosseinhendabad were drinking tea on a warm Sunday evening in Junewhen they heard a knock at their apartment door in Baton Rouge. According to court documents, two police officers said they were there to discuss a hit-and-run accident that the married couple had reported weeks earlier — might they see the damage on the car?

No criminals here! The Gestapo ICE thugs bust two law-abiding Ph.D. students, exactly the sort of people we want in our country.

The couple, immigrants from Iran studying at Louisiana State University, led the officers to their apartment’s parking lot. Then, without knowing why, their lawyers say, the two were arrested by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents.

After nearly a month in custody and two petitions challenging their detainment, a magistrate judge this week ordered that Firouzabadi, 30, and Pourhosseinhendabad, 29, be released and that all removal proceedings against them be dismissed. Norah Ahmed, one of their attorneys and legal director for the American Civil Liberties Union in Louisiana, said the case illustrates the risks immigrants face in their everyday lives under President Donald Trump’s push to increase deportations.

“There is a broader narrative out there that somehow the mass deportation efforts underway are somehow related to ‘criminals,’ right?” Ahmed said. “The reality is you’re taking two PhD students at LSU. … You’re taking in our friends, family, neighbors and loved ones — these are the people in these immigration jails.”

In certain cases, ICE officers can legally employ ruses, or deceptive tactics, to access private property. Officers could legally pretend to be from another agency and say they are investigating another crime to be allowed inside someone’s home, but they cannot misrepresent themselves as a probation officer or as a member of a health or safety organization. They also cannot coerce people through threats and intimidation, according to internal ICE memos. Neither ICE nor the Department of Homeland Security responded to requests for comment.

Ahmed said ICE’s tactics mean immigrants need to be less trusting of apparent officers showing up at their door.

“And that’s very sad,” she continued, “because it means that, as opposed to people feeling comfortable with law enforcement and state actors and contributing to make their communities better and safer, we are now encouraging people to, in fact, shut down.”

After their arrests, the two were held briefly in Baton Rouge and in Mississippi’s Hancock County before they were separated: Firouzabadi was moved to the South Louisiana ICE Processing Center and Pourhosseinhendabad to Central Louisiana ICE Processing Center, where they remained for several weeks.

The charges centered on their visa statuses after they were enrolled as students at LSU. The two arrived in the United States in 2023, when Firouzabadi, then 28, was accepted into a graduate program at LSU and granted an international student visa known as an F-1, according to court documents. Pourhosseinhendabad initially came to the U.S. on an F-2 visa, meant for spouses of international students, but was granted an F-1 visa earlier this year after he was accepted into LSU’s PhD program in mechanical engineering, according to court documents.

The U.S. revoked Firouzabadi’s visa in late September 2024, and when she was notified roughly a week later, school officials told her that her studies would remain unaffected, though she could not leave and re-enter the country, according to court documents. Both she and her husband applied for asylum; their application is still pending.

Firouzabadi was not initially given a reason for the revocation of her visa, but a week after she was arrested, her charging document said it was revoked because she had been suspected of espionage or sabotage against the U.S., according to Firouzabadi’s habeas corpus petition, which is a legal process to challenge a person’s detention. ICE then rescinded that allegation 10 days later, the petition says, to reflect that she was just being charged for overstaying her visa. Her husband’s charging document, known as a notice to appear, says he was arrested over losing his F-2 status in late 2023 — even though he had since obtained an F-1 visa, according to his habeas corpus petition.

Her lawyers argued that she was in the U.S. legally as she was still an active student and an employee of LSU on the date of her arrest. They also argued that the couple were unlawfully detained, as the government’s purpose for detention is solely to protect against danger and flight risk.

“Parisa’s detention — which occurred on the heels of the United States’ bombing of Iran and as part of a concerted, public effort by the Executive Branch to round up suspected Iranian terrorists — is unlawful, as it appears based solely on her Iranian nationality,” the petition says.

The two were among several Iranian immigrants arrested or detained in the days after the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran on June 21. Another Iranian woman from Louisiana, a 64-year-old grandmother named Mandonna “Donna” Kashanian who had been in the U.S. for nearly 50 years, was detained the same day Firouzabadi and Pourhosseinhendabad were taken into custody.

The DHS said the arrests reflected its “commitment to keeping known and suspected terrorists out of American communities,” and it issued a news release on June 24 identifying 11 Iranian men it had arrested. DHS spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said the department had “been full throttle on identifying and arresting known or suspected terrorists and violent extremists that illegally entered this country.”

Ahmed, the attorney, likened the arrests to the country’s internment camps during World War II, when the federal government rounded up and incarcerated citizens and residents of Japanese descent, justifying it by claiming they posed a security threat while the U.S. was at war with Japan.

“That it could be happening in 2025 is shocking, and it’s beyond deeply troubling,” she said.

Couple allege ICE arrested them after pretending to be cops in ruse
Parisa Firouzabadi and Pouria Pourhosseinhendabad say the agents claimed to have questions about a hit-and-run incident in order to get them out of their Baton Rouge apartment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/07/19/iranian-students-lsu-ice-arrest-ruse

Raleigh News and Observer: Eighteen States Join Lawsuit Against ICE Operations

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Los Angeles has filed a class-action lawsuit against the Trump administration, accusing ICE of using unlawful tactics including racial profiling and excessive force. The lawsuit highlights how the deployment of armed agents, particularly at MacArthur Park, has created a climate of fear and intimidation within the community. City officials argued the actions violate residents’ rights and have demanded accountability for the enforcement practices.

Mayor Karen Bass said, “I got alerted that there was an ICE operation, military intervention — who knows — at MacArthur Park.

City Attorney Hydee Feldstein-Soto expressed concern that armed agents and military vehicles are frightening residents.

Legal reps allege ICE and CBP have conducted unconstitutional stops and detentions based on race and ethnicity.

Soto said, “The federal government has concentrated thousands of armed immigration agents, many of whom lack visible identification, and military troops in our communities, conducting unconstitutional raids, roundups and anonymous detentions, sowing fear and chaos among our residents.”

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, joined by 17 other states, filed an amicus brief supporting the lawsuit and urging an end to the enforcement actions.

Eighteen States Join Lawsuit Against ICE Operations

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/eighteen-states-join-lawsuit-against-ice-operations/ss-AA1IUCx1

Bradenton Herald: Trump’s Plan for Undocumented Farm Workers Sparks Fury

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President Donald Trump’s proposal to allow agricultural and hospitality workers to remain in the U.S. through employer sponsorship has sparked backlash among MAGA supporters. Many within the movement, who have supported mass deportation as a cornerstone of Trump’s immigration policy, view the move as a betrayal of their hardline stance. The division has come amid ongoing tensions within the base over Trump’s leadership, including controversy surrounding the Jeffrey Epstein case.

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson said, “President Trump is fulfilling his promise to the American people to carry out the largest mass deportation operation in history. There will be no amnesty. Only deportations of the violent, criminal illegal aliens that Joe Biden welcomed into the country.”

Which is bullshit — most of the people they are deporting have no criminal records.

…

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed the Administration will continue mass deportations with a more strategic approach. Officials have denied plans for amnesty thus far.

Whatever the hell that’s supposed to mean, when King Donald has promised some kind of magical “employer sponsorship” program.

Trump’s Plan for Undocumented Farm Workers Sparks Fury

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-s-plan-for-undocumented-farm-workers-sparks-fury/ss-AA1IVnrF

YouTube: ‘The brick wall of reality’: Stephen Miller’s anti-immigrant pitch doesn’t hold up to scrutiny

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‘The brick wall of reality’: Stephen Miller’s anti-immigrant pitch doesn’t hold up to scrutiny
“What would Los Angeles look like without illegal immigrants,” asked Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller to himself on Fox News. He painted an i…

Newsweek: Economic Warning as More Than Half-Million People Could Leave US This Year

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The U.S. could see hundreds of thousands leave the country this year thanks to President Donald Trump‘s immigration agenda, but experts believe his aggressive campaign of deportations and entry limitations could shrink the foreign-born labor force to the detriment of the economy.

In a paper recently published by the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI), researchers estimated that U.S. net migration could end up between a negative 525,000 and 115,000 this year, which they said reflects “a dramatic decrease in inflows and somewhat higher outflows.” This compares to nearly 1.3 million in 2024, according to Macrotrends, and 330,000 in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global travel to an abrupt standstill.

If their lower-end forecasts prove correct, it would represent the first time the U.S. has seen negative net migration in decades.

Given much of the American labor force consists of foreign-born workers—19.2 percent, per the Department of Labor—and immigrants also make up a significant share of the spending market, such a decline could put downward pressure on the labor force and consumer spending and reduce GDP this year by up to 0.4 percent.

This echoes the findings of another paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas last week that estimates the decline in immigration could mean a 0.75 percent to 1.0 percent hit to GDP growth this year.

“The drop in migrant inflows, and the drop in the foreign-born population more broadly, will have adverse effects on growth in the U.S. labor force, which will spill over into almost every sector of the economy,” Madeline Zavodny, one of the authors of Dallas Fed paper, told Newsweek.

This is exacerbated by the country’s low birth rate—already a source of economic unease—which is leading to a shrinking share of the population in the “working-age” bracket.

“The U.S. population is aging,” Zavodny said, “and we rely on new immigrants to help fuel growth in the labor force and key sectors, from agriculture to construction to health care.”

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson, in response to some of these fears, told Newsweek: “President Trump’s agenda to deport criminal illegal aliens will improve Americans’ quality of life across the board. American resources, funded by American taxpayers, will no longer be stretched thin and abused by illegals.”

“President Trump is ushering in America’s golden age and growing our economy with American workers,” she added.

Bullshit!!!

Giovanni Peri, a labor economist and professor at the University of California, Davis, said that the jobs impact of a sustained decline in net inflows will be felt the strongest in lower-skilled areas such as construction, agriculture, hospitality and personal services, and roles where American-born workers are unlikely to offset declining migrant inflows. As a consequence, he told Newsweek, prices in these sectors will likely increase.

Stan Veuger, senior fellow in economic policy studies at AEI and one of the authors of the working paper, similarly said that the agriculture, leisure and construction sectors will be hit hardest by the drop in labor supply. He added that, on the demand side, a drop in foreign-born workers will impact real estate, as well as the retail and utilities sectors, the most.

“Large firms may be able to attract some more workers to replace them, usually paying higher wages,” Peri said, “while smaller firms will be more at risk of staying in business as they have smaller productivity and margins.”

Zavodny also said that small businesses will suffer the most—given these traditionally struggle to access temporary worker programs such as H-2A and H-2B visas—but that large employers will be affected too, and that “everyone will lose part of their customer base.”

The American Immigration Council estimates that the country’s foreign-born population possesses about $1.7 trillion in spending power—of which $299 billion comes from undocumented immigrants—and paid $167 billion in rent in 2023.

As outlined in AEI’s paper, lower spending will reduce business revenues, prompting layoffs and putting another form of pressure on the labor market besides the declining workforce.

Despite the potential economic fallout, Trump shows no signs of relenting on his campaign promises regarding immigration, with deportations in full swing and the president having recently signed the GOP reconciliation bill that frees up about $150 billion to help enforce that part of his agenda.

“I would hope so, though I am not optimistic,” said AEI’s Stan Veuger, when asked whether the impact on economic growth could prompt a reconsideration of the administration’s stance.

“I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic [or humanitarian] impact of their immigration policies.”

Giovanni Peri, a labor economist and professor at the University of California, Davis, said that the jobs impact of a sustained decline in net inflows will be felt the strongest in lower-skilled areas such as construction, agriculture, hospitality and personal services, and roles where American-born workers are unlikely to offset declining migrant inflows. As a consequence, he told Newsweek, prices in these sectors will likely increase.

Stan Veuger, senior fellow in economic policy studies at AEI and one of the authors of the working paper, similarly said that the agriculture, leisure and construction sectors will be hit hardest by the drop in labor supply. He added that, on the demand side, a drop in foreign-born workers will impact real estate, as well as the retail and utilities sectors, the most.

“Large firms may be able to attract some more workers to replace them, usually paying higher wages,” Peri said, “while smaller firms will be more at risk of staying in business as they have smaller productivity and margins.”

Zavodny also said that small businesses will suffer the most—given these traditionally struggle to access temporary worker programs such as H-2A and H-2B visas—but that large employers will be affected too, and that “everyone will lose part of their customer base.”

The American Immigration Council estimates that the country’s foreign-born population possesses about $1.7 trillion in spending power—of which $299 billion comes from undocumented immigrants—and paid $167 billion in rent in 2023.

As outlined in AEI’s paper, lower spending will reduce business revenues, prompting layoffs and putting another form of pressure on the labor market besides the declining workforce.

Despite the potential economic fallout, Trump shows no signs of relenting on his campaign promises regarding immigration, with deportations in full swing and the president having recently signed the GOP reconciliation bill that frees up about $150 billion to help enforce that part of his agenda.

“I would hope so, though I am not optimistic,” said AEI’s Stan Veuger, when asked whether the impact on economic growth could prompt a reconsideration of the administration’s stance.

“I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic [or humanitarian] impact of their immigration policies.”

Economic warning as more than half-million people could leave US this year
Predicted decline in net migration will have impact that one economist said could “spill over into almost every sector of the economy.”

https://www.newsweek.com/economic-warning-half-million-leave-us-2100225