Once the heart of President Donald Trump’s political base, the Midwest — the region he promised to revive with factory jobs and “America First” trade policies — is showing signs of disillusionment.
The latest TIPP Insights poll, conducted between September 30 and October 2, found Trump’s favorability in the Midwest at 40 percent favorable and 49 percent unfavorable, one of his weakest showings nationwide. The decline is striking given that Trump has long positioned himself as a champion of blue-collar workers and has frequently touted his record of reviving the region’s industrial economy.
“I think of the Midwest as quintessentially the most ‘purple’ or swingy region in national politics,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, told Newsweek. “With that, it’s not too surprising to me that Trump’s approval there, -9, is roughly in line with where he is nationally.”
Trump’s highest favorability was recorded in the Northeast (47 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable) — an unexpected result for one of the nation’s most liberal regions. He also performed well in the South (46 percent favorable, 43 percent unfavorable), where Republican registration remains strong.
The West was Trump’s least favorable region, with 38 percent viewing him positively and 50 percent negatively.
The Midwest at the Heart of Trump’s 2024 Strategy
The Midwest was central to Trump’s 2024 re-election campaign. He won eight of the 12 Midwestern states, flipping both Michigan and Wisconsin — two states he had narrowly lost in 2020. In Wisconsin, Trump won 49.6 percent of the vote to Kamala Harris’s 48.7 percent, while in Michigan he became the first Republican to carry the state twice since Ronald Reagan.
His choice of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate underscored the region’s political importance. Announcing the pick, Trump said Vance “will be strongly focused on … the American Workers and Farmers in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Minnesota, and far beyond.”
At the time, Anthony Zurcher, the BBC’s North America correspondent, wrote that “the pick suggests Trump knows this election will be won and lost in a handful of industrial Midwest battleground states.”
And ahead of that announcement, Angelia Wilson, a politics professor at the University of Manchester, England, told Newsweek: “Any reasonable political strategy points to Vance and the need to ensure a solid win in Ohio and the Rustbelt.”
Trump’s Midwest Promise
Throughout the 2024 campaign, Trump returned repeatedly to the theme that only he could restore the region’s lost industrial power. In Saginaw, Michigan, he vowed to make the state once again the “car capital of the world,” blasting what he called “energy policies that are stripping jobs” from American workers. “Michigan, more than any other state, has lost 60 percent of your automobile business over the years,” he said.
In Mosinee, Wisconsin, Trump leaned on trade threats as a key policy tool. Speaking at a rally, he warned of “unprecedented tariffs” against foreign competitors and argued that immigrants were displacing U.S. workers — framing his agenda as a defense of the industrial Midwest, Reuters reported.
And in one of his most direct economic moves, Trump threatened 200 percent tariffs on John Deere if the agricultural giant shifted production to Mexico, a signal to Midwestern manufacturers that his “America First” stance still applied to them.
Tariffs, Inflation, and the New Economic Anxiety
But while Trump’s message of protectionism once resonated deeply across the Midwest, cracks are beginning to show. Many farmers and manufacturers are now feeling the pinch of tariffs that have reduced exports and driven down crop prices.
“There have been constant headlines of farmers being caught in the middle of Trump’s tariff fights, so that might be an especially salient issue in the Midwest,” Coleman said.
Trump has dramatically expanded U.S. tariffs since returning to office, marking one of the most sweeping protectionist shifts in decades. In February 2025, he imposed new duties of 25 percent on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10 percent on Chinese imports, citing national security concerns related to drug trafficking and border security, according to a White House fact sheet.
Two months later, Trump issued Executive Order 14257, known as “Liberation Day,” introducing a 10 percent baseline tariff on nearly all imports and authorizing higher duties — in some cases up to 50 percent — on goods from countries accused of unfair trade practices. The order also revoked the de minimis exemption that had allowed low-value imports to enter the U.S. tariff-free, and expanded tariffs under existing laws such as Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The measures targeted key industries including autos, steel and aluminum.
The administration has defended the tariffs as essential to rebuilding American manufacturing and protecting domestic jobs. But economists have warned of steep costs. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated the tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by six percent and lower wages by five percent, costing a typical middle-income household about $22,000 in lifetime income losses. The group also projected that the tariffs could raise between $4.5 and $5.2 trillion in federal revenue over the next decade — gains that could be offset by inflation and supply chain disruptions.
For farmers, tariffs have been a thorn in their side since 2017, when Trump first imposed tariffs on key trading partners.
Since then, American farmers have struggled with the loss of China as the top buyer of U.S. soybeans and a major market for corn. Exports of soybeans — America’s largest grain export by value — recently fell to a 20-year low, deepening fears that China may not purchase any U.S. grain this season.
“With [tariffs] in place, we are not competitive with soybeans from Brazil,” Virginia Houston, director of government affairs at the American Soybean Association, told The Guardian. “No market can match China’s demand for soybeans. Right now, there is a 20 percent retaliatory duty from China.”
Trump has said little publicly about the impact on farmers, though in August he demanded on Truth Social that China quadruple its soybean purchases. Chinese officials have instead pledged to boost domestic production by 38 percent by 2034, and U.S. farm groups say no new Chinese orders have been placed for the upcoming season.
Despite the financial pain, many rural voters continue to back Trump, emphasizing that their support isn’t determined by a single issue like tariffs.
“Tariffs are probably something that will help in the long run,” Ohio farmer Brian Harbage, told The Guardian, acknowledging current export difficulties and economic uncertainty.
To ease the strain, the Trump administration included $60 billion in farm subsidies in its latest tax bill, but critics argue the money favors large producers over family farms. Meanwhile, falling commodity prices, smaller cattle herds, and declining ethanol production have further weakened the sector.
“The farm economy is in a much tougher place than where we were in 2018,” Houston said. “Prices have gone down while inputs – seed, fertilizer, chemicals, land and equipment – continue to go up.”
Harbage said if Trump visited his farm, his message would be simple: “The exports is number one. That’s the number one fix. We have to get rid of what we’re growing, or we have to be able to use it. China, Mexico and Canada – we export $83 billion worth of commodities to them a year. So if they’re not buying, we’re stuck with our crop.”
Renewable Energy Rift
Trump’s opposition to renewable energy subsidies is also creating unease among farmers.
In Iowa, where nearly two-thirds of electricity comes from wind and more than 50 wind-related companies operate, the end of federal incentives under Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” has thrown the industry into turmoil. The cuts have imperiled $22 billion in wind investments and tens of thousands of jobs tied to wind manufacturing and land leases. Wind farms are the top taxpayer in a third of Iowa’s counties, contributing up to 55 percent of local property taxes and $91.4 million in annual lease payments to farmers, according to Power Up Iowa.
Farmers and local officials warn that Trump’s policies threaten this economic lifeline. “I don’t know how anybody in good faith could vote against alternative energy if they’re elected by the people in Iowa,” Fort Madison Mayor Matt Mohrfeld, told Politico, calling the cuts “a crucial mistake.”
Republicans argue that wind and solar are now “mature industries” that no longer need government help. But clean energy developers and local leaders say the rollback is already causing uncertainty, job losses, and halted projects — including the shutdown of Iowa wind manufacturer TPI Composites, which cited “industry-wide pressures” after losing federal support.
Trump Energy Secretary Chris Wright has argued that heavy federal government spending on renewable energy is “nonsensical.”
https://www.newsweek.com/the-midwest-has-turned-on-trump-10860327
When President Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs in April, the move was expected to ripple through the economy. The impact is evident in the prices of everyday goods. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, consumer prices climbed 2.9% year-over-year in August. That’s above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
Some categories have been less affected, but goods like coffee, bananas, televisions, toys and jewelry have seen sharp price hikes due to the tariffs. Here’s how much these five popular items have gone up since April.
Toys
Toys have been affordable over the years due to overseas manufacturing. However, tariffs has made toy prices jump 2.5% since April, according to CPI data. Near three quarters of the toys sold in the U.S. are imports from China, where many shipments now face up to 30% tariffs.
TVs
TV prices have been on a downward trend since the 1990s but with Trump tariffs they have risen 3.1% since April, per CPI data. Many TVs in the North American market are shipped from China, Vietnam and Mexico. Depending on the supplier, retailers can pay anywhere from 20% to 30%. If you’re in the market for a new TV, you may feel the pinch at checkout.
Jewelry and Watches
Luxury items have also been hit by the tariffs. And since the U.S. relies on imported jewelry components, jewelry and watch prices surged 5.5% in August, per CPI data. One of the reasons for the high spike is Trump’s 39% tariffs imposed on Swiss imports. Plus, India and Japan, major suppliers of diamonds and high-end mechanical watches were also hit with new tariffs.
Coffee
Your caffeine fix got a lot more expensive, with coffee prices jumping 9.8% since April, according to CPI data. While the 10% global tariffs is the major contributor, the U.S. also grows less than 1% of coffee, relying heavily on imports. Additionally, Brazil — which provides more than a third of America’s Arabica beans, according to Detroit News — was hit with a 50% tariff last month.
Bananas
Bananas, which have a long history of stability despite where the economy goes, saw a 4.9% jump in prices between April and August, per CPI data. Besides, almost all the bananas in the U.S. market come from central and south America.
On the campaign trail, then-candidate Donald Trump repeatedly promised to “end inflation on Day One” of his presidency.
“Starting on Day One of my new administration, we will end inflation, and we will make America affordable again,” the president said in at an October campaign rally in Saginaw, Michigan, per RollCall.
How well has the president kept that promise?
Inflation Since January
Over the eight months from January through August, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate averaged 2.65%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That remains higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, but not egregiously so.
The problem for Trump — and all Americans — is the change in trend direction, not the average.
Inflation had been trending downward when Trump entered the White House in January. It dropped from 3.0% in January to 2.3% in April, and Trump has claimed many times that he has in fact defeated inflation. As recently as Sept. 8, he told WABC, “We have no inflation. Prices are down on just about everything.”
But inflation has been rebounding since April, rising from 2.3% to 2.9% in August. What changed?
Tariffs Trickling Down to Consumers
Through June, companies only passed on 22% of the heightened cost of imported goods to consumers, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis shared with Bloomberg.
Yet the bank warned that if the current tariff policies continue, that number will rise to 67%.
Sure enough, the latest CPI report found that grocery prices jumped 0.6% in August, the largest leap in three years. Apparel and audiovisual prices rose 0.5%, while car parts increased 0.6%. Coffee costs 20% more than it did a year ago.
Overall prices rose 0.4% in August, the largest monthly gain since December.
Ironically, President Trump may have actually been able to deliver on his campaign promise to curb inflation quickly, if it weren’t for sweeping tariffs. All Americans can do today is speculate on that point however, as inflation reaccelerates.
The American job market, a pillar of U.S. economic strength since the pandemic, is crumbling under the weight of President Donald Trump’s erratic economic policies.
Uncertain about where things are headed, companies have grown increasingly reluctant to hire, leaving agonized jobseekers unable to find work and weighing on consumers who account for 70% of all U.S. economic activity. Their spending has been the engine behind the world’s biggest economy since the COVID-19 disruptions of 2020.
The Labor Department reported Friday that U.S. employers — companies, government agencies and nonprofits — added just 22,000 jobs last month, down from 79,000 in July and well below the 80,000 that economists had expected.
The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3% last month, also worse than expected and the highest since 2021.
“U.S. labor market deterioration intensified in August,’’ Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Market, wrote in a commentary, noting that hiring was “slumping dangerously close to stall speed. This raises the risk of a harder landing for consumer spending and the economy in the months ahead.’’
Alexa Mamoulides, 27, was laid off in the spring from a job at a research publishing company and has been hunting for work ever since. She uses a spreadsheet to track her progress and said she’s applied for 111 positions and had 14 interviews — but hasn’t landed a job yet.
https://apnews.com/article/jobs-economy-unemployment-trump-firing-f686eab61f7d6b702ca10b12b0250498
Economists are warning that US President Donald Trump’s efforts to meddle with the Federal Reserve are going to wind up raising prices even further on working families.
Michael Madowitz, principal economist at the Roosevelt Institute, said on Wednesday that the president’s efforts to strong-arm the US central bank into lowering interest rates by firing Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook would backfire by accelerating inflation.
“The administration’s efforts to politicize interest rates—an authoritarian tactic—will ultimately hurt American families by driving up costs,” he said. “That helps explain why Fed independence has helped keep inflation under 3%, while, after years of political interference in their central bank, Turkey’s inflation rate is over 33%.”
Heidi Shierholz, the president of the Economic Policy Institute, said that the president’s move to fire Cook “radically undermines what Trump says his own goal is: lowering U.S. interest rates to spur faster economic growth.”
She then gave a detailed explanation for why Trump imposing his will on the Federal Reserve would likely bring economic pain.
“Presidential capture of the Fed would signal to decision-makers throughout the economy that interest rates will no longer be set on the basis of sound data or economic conditions—but instead on the whims of the president,” she argued. “Confidence that the Fed will respond wisely to future periods of macroeconomic stress—either excess inflation or unemployment—will evaporate.”
This lack of confidence, she continued, would manifest in investors in US Treasury bonds demanding higher premiums due to the higher risks they will feel they are taking when buying US debt, which would only further drive up the nation’s borrowing costs.
“These higher long-term rates will ripple through the economy—making mortgages, auto loans, and credit card payments higher for working people—and require that rates be held higher for longer to tamp down any future outbreak of inflation,” she said. “In the first hours after Trump’s announcement, all of these worries seemed to be coming to pass.”
Economist Paul Krugman, a former columnist for The New York Times, wrote on his personal Substack page Thursday that Trump’s moves to take control of the Federal Reserve were “shocking and terrifying.”
“Trump’s campaign to take over monetary policy has shifted from a public pressure to personal intimidation of Fed officials: the attack on Cook signals that Trump and his people will try to ruin the life of anyone who stands in his way,” he argued. “There is now a substantial chance that the Fed’s independence, its ability to manage the nation’s monetary policy on an objective, technocratic basis rather than as an instrument of the president’s political interests and personal whims, will soon be gone.”
The economists’ warnings come as economic data released on Friday revealed that core inflation rose to 2.9% in August, which is the highest annual rate recorded since this past February. Earlier this month, the Producer Price Index, which is considered a leading indicator of future inflation, came in at 3.3%, which was significantly higher than economists’ consensus estimate of 2.5%.
Data aggregated by polling analyst G. Elliott Morris shows that inflation is far and away Trump’s biggest vulnerability, as American voters give him a net approval of -23% on that issue.
