Newsweek: Lower income Americans issued warning over Trump post move

A nearly century-old trade rule that allowed Americans to import small packages without paying duties has been eliminated by President Donald Trump‘s administration, which could disproportionately affect low-income households.

Why It Matters

The “de minimis” exemption, which applied to packages worth under $800 coming into the U.S., had long allowed goods to bypass customs duties and complex paperwork. On August 29, the Trump administration officially ended the rule, which covered 1.36 billion shipments valued at $64.6 billion in fiscal year 2024.

While the end of de minimis came for China—the largest inbound source of such shipments—and Hong Kong earlier this year, the August 29 change impacts every U.S. trading partner. As a result, more than 30 countries’ postal operators restricted or suspended shipments to the U.S. ahead of the policy change, including major trade partners such as India, Mexico, and Japan.

Supporters of the policy shift argue that it levels the playing field for domestic businesses and addresses concerns over unsafe imports. Trump described the de minimis exemption as “a big scam going on against our country, against really small businesses, and we’ve ended it.” The White House said the rule had also been exploited to evade tariffs and enables the import of illegal substances such as fentanyl.

What To Know

According to a 2024 National Bureau of Economic Research paper, eliminating de minimis could reduce consumer welfare by up to $13 billion each year, with lower-income households feeling the greatest impact.

The research found that the de minimis rule is a “pro-poor trade policy,” but its elimination flips it “from pro-poor to pro-rich.”

Shipments to the lowest-income zip codes face an average tariff of just 0.5 percent, compared with 1.5 percent for the wealthiest areas, the research says. In scrapping the rule, that balance flips, with tariffs for low-income communities projected jump to nearly 12 percent, while wealthier areas would see an increase of about 6.5 percent.

On top of that, every package would be charged an administrative fee, a cost that the research says would fall hardest on low-income households since they make more use of de minimis shipments.

“Lower-income households that rely on inexpensive imported goods such as clothing, household items, and phone accessories will be hardest hit,” Usha Haley, Barton distinguished chair in international business at Wichita State University, told Newsweek.

“For these consumers, even small increases in the prices of everyday items are a larger share of their discretionary spending, making the policy regressive in practice.”

Commercial carriers, which handle the majority of these parcels, must now file customs entries and pay tariffs. For postal services, flat fees of $80 to $200 are allowed temporarily, and will soon switch to the origin country’s applicable tariff rate. In many cases, sellers will pass on the cost of this to the consumer.

Sean Henry, CEO and co-founder at supply chain company Stord, agreed the burden of higher prices will be particularly visible in poorer communities. “A disproportionate amount of shipments entering the U.S. under the de minimis program were going to lower-income zip codes,” he told Newsweek.

“Consumers of a lower-income level have often found these extremely cheap products from platforms like Shein and Temu, and those product categories will feel the impact most acutely.”

Why Is De Minimis Being Axed?

The White House and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) have both contended that de minimis rules have been exploited by bad actors.

According to the CBP, smugglers have exploited de minimis shipments to move drugs and weapons into the country. They often undervalue or mislabel goods, disguising dangerous items as harmless.

The White House has made similar assertions, saying that de minimis has encourages the evasion of tariffs and allowed the funneling of “deadly synthetic opioids as well as other unsafe or below-market products that harm American workers and businesses into the United States.”

What Happens Next

The end of de minimis won’t just impact America’s poorest, with all consumers facing price hikes on goods made outside of the U.S.

“In the short term, consumers are likely to see immediate price hikes,” Robert Khachatryan, CEO at Freight Right Global Logistics, told Newsweek. “Low-dollar items such as $10 accessories or fast-fashion staples will face double-digit percentage increases once merchandise processing fees and duties are applied.”

https://www.newsweek.com/lower-income-americans-warning-trump-de-minimis-2122766

Fortune: More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says

The U.S. economy isn’t in a recession yet, but the number of industries cutting back on headcount is concerning, and future revisions to jobs data could show employment is already falling, according to Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.

In a series of X posts on Sunday, he followed up his warning from last weekend that the economy is on the brink of a recession.

This time, Zandi pointed out that the start of a recession is often unclear until after the fact, noting that the National Bureau of Economic Research is the official arbiter of when one begins and ends.

According to the NBER, a recession involves “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” It also looks at a range of indicators, including personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales, and industrial production.

Zandi said payroll employment data is by far the most important data point, and declines for more than a month consecutively would signal a downturn. While employment hasn’t started falling yet, it’s barely grown since May, he added.

Payrolls expanded by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for about 100,000. Meanwhile, May’s tally was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June’s total was slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000, meaning the average gain over the past three months is now only 35,000.

Because recent revisions have been consistently much lower, Zandi said he wouldn’t be surprised if subsequent revisions show that employment is already declining.

“Also telling is that employment is declining in many industries. In the past, if more than half the ≈400 industries in the payroll survey were shedding jobs, we were in a recession,” he added. “In July, over 53% of industries were cutting jobs, and only healthcare was adding meaningfully to payrolls.”

Last week, Zandi said data often sees big revisions when the economy is at an inflection point, like a recession. And on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook similarly noted that large revisions are “typical of turning points” in the economy. 

For now, the Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker points to continued growth, and the third-quarter forecast even edged up to 2.5% from 2.1% last week, though that’s still a slowdown from 3% in the second quarter.

There are also no signs of mass layoffs as weekly jobless claims haven’t spiked, and the unemployment rate has barely changed, bouncing in a tight range between 4% and 4.2% for more than a year.

But Zandi said the jobless rate will be a “particularly poor barometer of recession” as the recent decrease in the number of foreign-born workers has kept the labor force flat.

“Also note that a recession is defined by a persistent decline in jobs — the decline lasts for at least a few months. We aren’t there yet, and we are thus not in recession,” he explained. “Things could still turn around if the economic policies weighing on the economy soon lift. But that looks increasingly unlikely.”

Wall Street is divided on what the jobs data are saying, with some analysts attributing the slowdown to weak labor demand while others blame weak labor supply amid President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

Bank of America falls into the supply camp and said “markets are conflating recession with stagflation.” But UBS warned of weak demand, pointing out the average workweek is below 2019 levels, and said the labor market is showing signs of “stall speed.”

Last week, economists at JPMorgan also sounded the alarm on a potential downturn. They noted that jobs data show hiring in the private sector has cooled to an average of just 52,000 in the last three months, with sectors outside health and education stalling.

Coupled with the lack of any signs that unwanted separations are surging due to immigration policy, this is a strong signal that business demand for labor has cooled, they said.

“We have consistently emphasized that a slide in labor demand of this magnitude is a recession warning signal,” JPMorgan added. “Firms normally maintain hiring gains through growth downshifts they perceive as transitory. In episodes when labor demand slides with a growth downshift, it is often a precursor to retrenchment.”

https://fortune.com/2025/08/10/recession-warning-economic-outlook-industry-job-losses-employment-declines