Newsweek: Economic Warning as More Than Half-Million People Could Leave US This Year

The U.S. could see hundreds of thousands leave the country this year thanks to President Donald Trump‘s immigration agenda, but experts believe his aggressive campaign of deportations and entry limitations could shrink the foreign-born labor force to the detriment of the economy.

In a paper recently published by the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute (AEI), researchers estimated that U.S. net migration could end up between a negative 525,000 and 115,000 this year, which they said reflects “a dramatic decrease in inflows and somewhat higher outflows.” This compares to nearly 1.3 million in 2024, according to Macrotrends, and 330,000 in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic brought global travel to an abrupt standstill.

If their lower-end forecasts prove correct, it would represent the first time the U.S. has seen negative net migration in decades.

Given much of the American labor force consists of foreign-born workers—19.2 percent, per the Department of Labor—and immigrants also make up a significant share of the spending market, such a decline could put downward pressure on the labor force and consumer spending and reduce GDP this year by up to 0.4 percent.

This echoes the findings of another paper, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas last week that estimates the decline in immigration could mean a 0.75 percent to 1.0 percent hit to GDP growth this year.

“The drop in migrant inflows, and the drop in the foreign-born population more broadly, will have adverse effects on growth in the U.S. labor force, which will spill over into almost every sector of the economy,” Madeline Zavodny, one of the authors of Dallas Fed paper, told Newsweek.

This is exacerbated by the country’s low birth rate—already a source of economic unease—which is leading to a shrinking share of the population in the “working-age” bracket.

“The U.S. population is aging,” Zavodny said, “and we rely on new immigrants to help fuel growth in the labor force and key sectors, from agriculture to construction to health care.”

White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson, in response to some of these fears, told Newsweek: “President Trump’s agenda to deport criminal illegal aliens will improve Americans’ quality of life across the board. American resources, funded by American taxpayers, will no longer be stretched thin and abused by illegals.”

“President Trump is ushering in America’s golden age and growing our economy with American workers,” she added.

Bullshit!!!

Giovanni Peri, a labor economist and professor at the University of California, Davis, said that the jobs impact of a sustained decline in net inflows will be felt the strongest in lower-skilled areas such as construction, agriculture, hospitality and personal services, and roles where American-born workers are unlikely to offset declining migrant inflows. As a consequence, he told Newsweek, prices in these sectors will likely increase.

Stan Veuger, senior fellow in economic policy studies at AEI and one of the authors of the working paper, similarly said that the agriculture, leisure and construction sectors will be hit hardest by the drop in labor supply. He added that, on the demand side, a drop in foreign-born workers will impact real estate, as well as the retail and utilities sectors, the most.

“Large firms may be able to attract some more workers to replace them, usually paying higher wages,” Peri said, “while smaller firms will be more at risk of staying in business as they have smaller productivity and margins.”

Zavodny also said that small businesses will suffer the most—given these traditionally struggle to access temporary worker programs such as H-2A and H-2B visas—but that large employers will be affected too, and that “everyone will lose part of their customer base.”

The American Immigration Council estimates that the country’s foreign-born population possesses about $1.7 trillion in spending power—of which $299 billion comes from undocumented immigrants—and paid $167 billion in rent in 2023.

As outlined in AEI’s paper, lower spending will reduce business revenues, prompting layoffs and putting another form of pressure on the labor market besides the declining workforce.

Despite the potential economic fallout, Trump shows no signs of relenting on his campaign promises regarding immigration, with deportations in full swing and the president having recently signed the GOP reconciliation bill that frees up about $150 billion to help enforce that part of his agenda.

“I would hope so, though I am not optimistic,” said AEI’s Stan Veuger, when asked whether the impact on economic growth could prompt a reconsideration of the administration’s stance.

“I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic [or humanitarian] impact of their immigration policies.”

Giovanni Peri, a labor economist and professor at the University of California, Davis, said that the jobs impact of a sustained decline in net inflows will be felt the strongest in lower-skilled areas such as construction, agriculture, hospitality and personal services, and roles where American-born workers are unlikely to offset declining migrant inflows. As a consequence, he told Newsweek, prices in these sectors will likely increase.

Stan Veuger, senior fellow in economic policy studies at AEI and one of the authors of the working paper, similarly said that the agriculture, leisure and construction sectors will be hit hardest by the drop in labor supply. He added that, on the demand side, a drop in foreign-born workers will impact real estate, as well as the retail and utilities sectors, the most.

“Large firms may be able to attract some more workers to replace them, usually paying higher wages,” Peri said, “while smaller firms will be more at risk of staying in business as they have smaller productivity and margins.”

Zavodny also said that small businesses will suffer the most—given these traditionally struggle to access temporary worker programs such as H-2A and H-2B visas—but that large employers will be affected too, and that “everyone will lose part of their customer base.”

The American Immigration Council estimates that the country’s foreign-born population possesses about $1.7 trillion in spending power—of which $299 billion comes from undocumented immigrants—and paid $167 billion in rent in 2023.

As outlined in AEI’s paper, lower spending will reduce business revenues, prompting layoffs and putting another form of pressure on the labor market besides the declining workforce.

Despite the potential economic fallout, Trump shows no signs of relenting on his campaign promises regarding immigration, with deportations in full swing and the president having recently signed the GOP reconciliation bill that frees up about $150 billion to help enforce that part of his agenda.

“I would hope so, though I am not optimistic,” said AEI’s Stan Veuger, when asked whether the impact on economic growth could prompt a reconsideration of the administration’s stance.

“I think the people driving immigration policy in the White House do not care about the economic [or humanitarian] impact of their immigration policies.”

https://www.newsweek.com/economic-warning-half-million-leave-us-2100225

Washington Post: ICE declares millions of undocumented immigrants ineligible for bond hearings

A memo from ICE’s acting director instructs officers to hold immigrants who entered the country illegally “for the duration of their removal proceedings,” which can take months or years.

The Trump administration has declared that immigrants who arrived in the United States illegally are no longer eligible for a bond hearing as they fight deportation proceedings in court, according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post.

In a July 8 memo, Todd M. Lyons, acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, told officers that such immigrants should be detained “for the duration of their removal proceedings,” which can take months or years. Lawyers say the policy will apply to millions of immigrants who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border over the past few decades, including under Biden.

In the past, immigrants residing in the U.S. interior generally have been allowed to request a bond hearing before an immigration judge. But Lyons wrote that the Trump administration’s departments of Homeland Security and Justice had “revisited its legal position on detention and release authorities” and determined that such immigrants “may not be released from ICE custody.” In rare exceptions immigrants may be released on parole, but that decision will be up to an immigration officer, not a judge, he wrote.

The provision is based on a section of immigration law that says unauthorized immigrants “shall be detained” after their arrest, but that has historically applied to those who recently crossed the border and not longtime residents.

Lyons, who oversees the nation’s 200 immigration detention facilities, wrote that the policy is expected to face legal challenges.

ICE did not respond to requests for comment. Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Rodney Scott issued similar guidance last week; that agency also did not respond to questions.

The sweeping new detention policy comes days after Congress passed a spending package that will allocate $45 billion over the next four years to lock up immigrants for civil deportation proceedings. The measure will allow ICE to roughly double the nation’s immigrant detention capacity to 100,000 people a day.

Since the memos were issued last week, the American Immigration Lawyers Association said members had reported that immigrants were being denied bond hearings in more than a dozen immigration courts across the United States, including in New York, Virginia, Oregon, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. The Department of Justice oversees the immigration courts.

“This is their way of putting in place nationwide a method of detaining even more people,” said Greg Chen, senior director of government relations for the American Immigration Lawyers Association. “It’s requiring the detention of far more people without any real review of their individual circumstances.”

Immigration hawks have long argued that detaining immigrants is necessary to quickly deport those who do not qualify for asylum or another way to stay in the United States permanently. They say detaining immigrants might also discourage people from filing frivolous claims, in hopes of being released as their cases proceed in the backlogged immigration courts.

“Detention is absolutely the best way to approach this, if you can do it. It costs a lot of money obviously,” said Mark Krikorian, executive director for the Center for Immigration Studies, which favors enforcement. “You’re pretty much guaranteed to be able to remove the person, if there’s a negative finding, if he’s in detention.”

In its 2024 annual report, however, ICE said it detains immigrants only “when necessary” and that the vast majority of the 7.6 million people then on its docket were released pending immigration proceedings. Keeping them detained while their case is adjudicated has not been logistically possible, and advocates have raised concern for migrants’ health and welfare in civil immigration detention.

Immigrants are already subject to mandatory detention without bond if they have been convicted of murder or other serious crimes, and this year the Republican-led Congress added theft-related crimes to that list after a Georgia nursing student, Laken Riley, was killed by a man from Venezuela who had been picked up for shoplifting and not held for deportation.

Immigration lawyers say the Trump administration is expanding a legal standard typically used to hold recent arrivals at the southern border toa much broader group — including immigrants who have lived in the United States for decades. Many have U.S. citizen children, lawyers say, and likely have the legal grounds to defend themselves against deportation.

Forcing them to remain in detention facilities often in far-flung areas such as an alligator-infested swamp in Florida or the Arizona desert would make it more difficult to fight their cases, because they will be unable to work or easily communicate with family members and lawyers to prepare their cases.

“I think some courts are going to find that this doesn’t give noncitizens sufficient due process,” said Paul Hunker, an immigration lawyer and former ICE chief counsel in the Dallas area. “They could be held indefinitely until they’re deported.*

ICE is holding about 56,000 immigrants a day as officers sweep the nation for undocumented immigrants, working overtime to fulfill Trump’s goal of deporting 1 million people in his first year. Officials have reopened family detention centers that the Biden administration shuttered because ofsafety concerns, stood up soft-sided facilities such as one in the Everglades, and begun deporting immigrants with little notice to alternative countries such as conflict-ridden South Sudan.

Immigration lawyers say the new ICE policy is similar to a position that several immigration judges in Tacoma, Washington, have espoused in recent years, denying hearings to anyone who crossed the border illegally.

The Northwest Immigrant Rights Project in Seattle filed a lawsuit in March on behalf of detainees challenging the policy, arguing that their refusal to consider a bond hearing violated the immigrants’ rights.

The original plaintiff in the case, Ramon Rodriguez Vazquez, has lived in Washington state since 2009, works as a farmer and is the “proud grandfather” of 10 U.S. citizens, court records show. His eight siblings are U.S. citizens who live in California.

He also owns his home, where ICE officers arrested him in February for being in the United States without permission. In April, a federal judge in Washington found that he has “no criminal history in the United States or anywhere else in the world” and ordered immigration officers to give him a bond hearing before a judge. A judge denied him bond and he has since returned to Mexico, his lawyer said.

But that decision does not apply nationwide, lawyers said.

Aaron Korthuis, a lawyer in the case, said Rodriguez is typical of the type of immigrants who now face prolonged detention as they fight deportation in immigration courts. He called the government’s new interpretation of bond hearings “flagrantly unlawful.”

“They are people who have been living here, all they’re doing is trying to make a living for their family,” Korthuis said in an interview. He said the policy “is looking to supercharge detention beyond what it already is.”

https://archive.is/vMvoj#selection-673.0-847.222

Esquire: Somehow Republicans Are Defending Kristi Noem After the Forceful Removal of Senator Alex Padilla

I thought assaulting someone holding federal office was a crime. Not anymore, apparently.

So, apparently we’re bum-rushing US senators now. From The Guardian:

In video taken of the incident that has since gone viral on social media, Padilla is seen being restrained and removed from the room by Secret Service agents.“I’m Senator Alex Padilla. I have questions for the secretary,” Padilla shouts, as he struggles to move past the men removing him from the premises. “Hands off!” he says at one point.Emerging afterward, Padilla, who is the ranking member of the judiciary subcommittee on immigration, citizenship and border safety, said he and his colleagues had repeatedly asked DHS for more information on its “increasingly extreme immigration enforcement actions” but had not received a response to his inquiries.

This tinhorn governor of a state where nobody lives, this puppy-murdering hack whose political career outside of MAGA World was as dead as Custer, now gets to sic her black-shirted thugs on the senior senator of a state that she and her criminal boss and all their attendant lords have been lying about, and about which she had flown to Los Angeles to lie about some more.

Dumbass in a ballcap says what? She just admitted they’re blowing up the town to get rid of the mayor and governor. If the courts ever get their teeth back, this gaffe will figure prominently in many filings.

Meanwhile, Padilla is hauled into a backroom and driven to the floor and handcuffed.

And not for nothing, but threatening and/or assaulting the holder of any federal office is a felony and could draw you five to ten in the pokey. And these goons are pretty identifiable.

And, of course, the administration’s prevarication mill went into full operation almost instantly. From The New Republic via Yahoo:

In posts on X, the official DHS account and Assistant DHS Secretary Tricia McLaughlin released a statement attempting to justify wrestling Padilla to the ground and handcuffing him. “Senator Padilla chose disrespectful political theatre and interrupted a live press conference without identifying himself or having his Senate security pin on as he lunged toward Secretary Noem,” the statement read.

Tricia learned to lie like this at the AEI’s Leadership Institute.

But in a video of the altercation from Padilla’s office, the senator could be heard clearly identifying himself. “Hands off! I’m Senator Alex Padilla, and I have questions for the secretary,” said the California Democrat as a security guard pushed him out of the room.

It’s clear that the goons looked at him and just saw another angry brown face. And by their reactions, Tricia and her boss are similarly afflicted.

This is also all my bollocks. Noem knows who Padilla is and, if she doesn’t, she should, and he did identify himself. Third-rate hack with a fourth-rate alibi.

And what about Speaker Moses? What did you expect?

That sanctimonious sumbitch wants Padilla censured. And he spent the afternoon hiding. If he’s a Christian, I’m an Ostrogoth.

The day was not without its burlesque, however. In a House Oversight Committee hearing, Rep. Maxwell Frost asked Chairman James (Jughead) Comer to issue a subpoena for Noem regarding the events of the day. Comer, of course, refused, probably because Padilla was not carrying Hunter Biden’s laptop at the time. And then we were off.

https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a65058840/senator-padilla-kristi-noem-james-comer-marjorie-taylor-greene

Associated Press: LA police swiftly enforce downtown curfew as protests against Trump’s immigration crackdown continue

Los Angeles police swiftly enforced a downtown curfew, making arrests moments after it took effect, while deploying officers on horseback and using crowd control projectiles to break up a group of hundreds demonstrating against President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

Members of the National Guard stood watch behind plastic shields, but did not appear to participate in the arrests Tuesday night.

Hours later, many of the protesters had dispersed, although sporadic confrontations continued that were much smaller than in previous nights. Officials said the curfew was necessary to stop vandalism and theft by agitators looking to cause trouble.

The demonstrations have been mostly concentrated downtown and the curfew covers a 1-square-mile (2.5-square-kilometer) section that includes an area where protests have occurred since Friday in the sprawling city of 4 million. The city of Los Angeles encompasses roughly 500 square miles (1,295 square kilometers).

[Gov. Gavin] Newsom asked a court to put an emergency stop to the military helping federal immigration agents, with some guardsmen now standing in protection around agents as they carried out arrests. He said it would only heighten tensions and civil unrest. The judge set a hearing for Thursday, giving the administration several days to continue those activities.

https://apnews.com/article/los-angeles-protests-ice-national-guard-f39ba39287f628ce8c8be47c92ea6147

NBC News: As immigration raids continue, ICE protests spread coast to coast

Activists plan more events Tuesday in New York, Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta. A curfew was imposed across downtown L.A. until 6 a.m.

Activists had also gathered in New York, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta and elsewhere, rebuking the Trump administration’s tough stance against migrants and its aggressive round-up efforts, which Democratic leaders in California have criticized as contributing to a sense of fear across communities.

NBC News has counted at least 25 rallies and demonstrations coast to coast since Monday. Some involved only a few dozen people, while others attracted thousands.

The protests took place as federal immigration raids continued nationwide Tuesday, including a “targeted enforcement operation” in Los Angeles, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as well as a raid at a meat processing facility in Omaha, Nebraska.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/anti-ice-protests-held-coast-coast-l-unrest-national-movement-grows-rcna211980

Mirror: LA immigration protests LIVE: Mass protests spread to new cities, with tear gas thrown in Dallas

The President sent another 2,000 National Guard troops to confront immigration protesters in LA, as the demonstrations spread to other US cities

President Donald Trump has defended his decision to send another 2,000 National Guard troops to confront immigration protesters in Los Angeles, as the demonstrations spread to other US cities.

The protests began Friday in downtown LA after federal immigration authorities arrested more than 40 people across the city. Trump on Monday authorized the deployment of 700 Marines and additional National Guard troops to LA as the protests entered a fourth day. It came after an initial 300 troops arrived in the city on Sunday.

The demonstrations spread to other cities including Boston, Houston and Philadelphia on Monday. In Dallas, hundreds of protesters gathered for a rally which police declared was “unlawful.” Authorities said one person was arrested.

https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/la-immigration-protests-live-flash-1195445

NBC News: ICE protests held coast to coast as national movement grows after L.A. unrest

Activists plan more events Tuesday in New York, Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta.

The protests that have roiled Los Angeles seem to be spreading across the country, as activists gathered Tuesday in New York, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta and elsewhere.

Rallies protesting ICE raids and the government’s immigration policies have been planned across California and beyond this week. A series of so-called No Kings demonstrations is planned nationwide for Saturday.

Since Monday, NBC News counted at least 25 rallies and demonstrations coast to coast. Some involved only a few dozen participants, while others attracted thousands to make a stand against the detention and removal of suspected undocumented migrants.

Lots more …

  • California and the West Coast
  • New York and the East Coast
  • Texas, the South and the Midwest

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/rcna211980

Live: LA immigration protests LIVE: Newsom brands Marine deployment to LA Trump’s ‘deranged fantasy’

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state of California is suing Donald Trump over his response to the violent riots in L.A. Tensions exploded between the two over the weekend and into Monday

Americans fear civil war is beginning right before their eyes as L.A. protesters and police clash — and California Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state of California is now suing Donald Trump over his response to the violent riots.

California Democrat Adam Schiff also accused Trump of wanting a reason to justify martial law in the region. The president lobbed several attacks against Newsom and L.A. Mayor Karen Bass on his Truth Social on Sunday night.

Trump is deploying 2,000 National Guard troops as protesters seek to block federal immigration authorities from carrying out deportations. ed to deploy status” should they be called upon to defend federal facilities and personnel.

The Marines with 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines, 1st Marine Division will work with the roughly 2,100 National Guard troops on the ground to protect federal property and personnel, including federal immigration agents, U.S. Northern Command says.

The Marines are moving from their base at Twentynine Palms in the California desert on Monday.

The troops have been trained in de-escalation, crowd control and standing rules for the use of force, and they will be armed with the weapons they normally carry.

Kent State Reprise is just around the corner.

https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/la-immigration-protests-live-flash-1195445

NBC News: Anti-ICE protests held coast to coast after L.A. unrest as national movement grows

Activists plan more events Tuesday in New York, Chicago, Dallas and Atlanta.

The protests that roiled Los Angeles over the weekend were set to spread Tuesday across the country, as activists planned demonstrations in New York, Chicago, Dallas, Atlanta and elsewhere.

Rallies protesting ICE raids and the government’s immigration policies have spread across California and beyond this week. A series of so-called No Kings demonstrations are planned nationwide for Saturday.

NBC News counted at least 25 rallies and demonstrations coast to coast. Some of them involved only a few dozen participants, while others attracted thousands to make a stand against the detention and removal of suspected undocumented migrants.

Many protesters across the country were trade unionists calling for the release of SEIU California President David Huerta, who was arrested on Friday.

Bimbo #2 is still too dense to get the message:

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi [Bimbo #2] Noem signaled on Tuesday that she would continue the agency’s program of raids and deportations despite the widespread protests.

“ICE will continue to enforce the law,” [Bimbo #2] Noem said.

It’s only just begun! 🙂

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/anti-ice-protests-held-coast-coast-l-unrest-national-movement-grows-rcna211980

Mirror: LA immigration protests LIVE: Civil war fears explode as 2,000 National Guard troops deployed

Americans are panicking about chaotic scenes unfolding in Los Angeles today as angry protesters clashed with federal agents.

Americans fear civil war is beginning right before their eyes as LA protesters and police clash – and California Democrat Adam Schiff has even accused Donald Trump of wanting a reason to justify martial law.

Trump is deploying 2,000 National Guard troops as protesters seek to block federal immigration authorities from carrying out deportations. And defense secretary Pete Hegseth has threatened to send in the Marines, with around 500 troops on standby.

In a statement released on Sunday, U.S. Northern Command said that, at the direction of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about 500 Marines are “in a prepared to deploy status” should they be called upon to defend federal facilities and personnel.

In an earlier directive, the President invoked a legal provision allowing him to deploy federal service members when there is ”a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States.”

Writing on X, one user said “sadly LA looks like a scene from the 2024 Civil War movie,” while another user asked: “Is the US now in de facto civil war or is that not yet what they call it?”

Others said they fear LA is the “beginning” of a wider civil war across the U.S.

California Governor Gavin Newsom and Trump are publicly clashing about efforts taken to contain the protests, with Newsom even going as far as accusing Trump of “manufacturing a crisis.”

This was echoed by Schiff, who wrote on social media: “There is nothing President Trump would like more than a violent confrontation with protestors to justify the unjustifiable — invocation of the Insurrection Act or some form of martial law.”

https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/la-immigration-protests-live-flash-1195445