During President Donald Trump’s campaign before winning the 2024 presidential election, he promised on his first day of office to “immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One” for groceries — but that hasn’t happened so far.
Average food prices in the United States have increased by 2.9% in the 12 months ending July 2025, according to U.S. inflation calculator. It’s a few ticks higher than the 2.7% inflation rate across all categories. The Federal Reserve’s preferred core inflation metric shows a 3.1% year-over-year increase, since it doesn’t include volatile food and energy prices. Trump has done well with energy, as those prices have dropped by 1.6% year-over-year.
He’s shown an ability to follow up on promises and even has lower energy prices, but grocery prices still remain elevated. There are a few reasons why that’s the case, and some of them are connected to Trump’s policies.
Tariffs Are a Key Component
After some false starts and negotiations with trading partners, tariffs are now in effect, and they have been contributing to higher food prices. Grocery stores like Walmart and Whole Foods have to hike their prices to keep up with the tariffs.
Although critics may question why Walmart, a global retailer that reported more than $7 billion in consolidated net income in Q2 FY26, has to raise prices, it makes sense. Despite Walmart’s vast retail presence and high profits, the company only operates on a 2.5% to 4% net profit margin, depending on the quarter. If prices go up by 10%, Walmart has to respond to the higher prices to preserve a positive profit margin.
The Tax Foundation projects that nearly 75% of all U.S. food imports will be affected by Trump’s tariffs. If tariffs linger or get higher in the future, it can lead to a short-term price hike in food prices. That short-term price hike would only decrease if some tariffs got negotiated away or the U.S. produced enough food to balance the supply-and-demand dynamics.
Beefy Price Hikes
The grocery bill looks different for each person based on what they buy, but if you like to eat beef, grocery inflation will show up more for you.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) found that retail beef and veal prices increased for the seventh month in a row from June 2025 to July 2025. Beef and veal prices increased by 2.5% month-over-month and are up by 11.3% year-over-year. The USDA anticipates beef and veal prices going up by 9.9% in 2025. Tight supplies of beef and veal are playing a role in the elevated prices.
Beef and veal are the main headliners, but other food categories are also due for higher prices. Eggs, sugar and sweets, and nonalcoholic beverages are also expected to grow faster than their 20-year historical average rate of growth.
If you’re looking for a deal, you might want to shop around for other meats, fats and oils and fresh vegetables. Those are the food items the USDA expects will see price cuts.
It’s More Expensive To Eat Out
While it’s been known for a while that eating out is more expensive than prepping your own meal, it even applies to inflation rates. The USDA found that grocery store and supermarket food purchases had a 0.1% month-over-month price hike compared to the 0.3% month-over-month price hike for restaurants and other food service providers.
The USDA also shared in research published on Aug. 25 that groceries are up by 2.2% year-over-year, while restaurant food and similar services are up by 3.9% year-over-year. Food as a whole is predicted to become 2.2% more expensive in 2026. The rate of inflation is only expected to be 1.2% for groceries, while dining will cost an additional 3.3% in 2026.
These forecasts do not suggest an immediate solution to rising food prices. Trump still has time to reduce food prices, but tariffs and the USDA’s 2026 projections don’t paint a bright picture for lower food costs.
https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/economy/trump-lower-grocery-prices-day-1-where-they-stand-now
Oil bosses have warned that America’s energy boom is over, as Trump’s tariffs raise production costs and crude prices fall thanks to an increase in production from Saudi Arabia.
The shale revolution of the last few years delivered huge volumes of cheap oil and gas that powered the US economy and broke dependence on foreign imports from places such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela.
Production hit record highs under President Joe Biden, but is now falling under Trump.
The situation presents a direct contradiction to the President’s pledges to ‘drill baby drill’ and assert America’s ‘energy dominance.’
…
‘Saudi is trying to regain market share and they’ll probably get it over the next five years,’ Sheffield explained.
“The short answer is yes, prices are going to go up,” said David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University. “They may not skyrocket for all imported products, but they will go up. Tariffs are a tax on imports, so by definition, they are inflationary.”
While higher tariffs could still be coming after a 90-day-pause, the baseline 10% tariff on all goods, plus higher duties on Chinese products already in effect are a big increase in food costs for American’s budgets, said Thomas Gremillion, director of food policy at The Consumer Federation of America.
“The 10% ‘default’ tariffs alone represent a truly historic federal tax increase, maybe the largest in my lifetime, with a highly regressive impact,” Gremillion said.
This is what they tell the geese:
Donald Trump’s trade wars with China and other nations are widely expected to cause sharp economic pain, but some experts have warned consumers not to hoard supplies and goods before prices skyrocket, arguing that mass stockpiling could backfire spectacularly.
But this is what the ganders do:
Two Trump administration officials and a Trump aide tell Rolling Stone that they have done some stockpiling of their own in recent weeks or months, and that they know others working in Republican politics — inside and outside of the administration — who are doing the same. One of the Trump officials says they have already run to Target to bulk-buy toilet paper, some types of food, and other household supplies.
When asked why they’re doing this, the Trump aide — who says they and their partner have done similar household-supply hoarding lately, and are also “stashing cash” reserves in their D.C.-area home — simply replies: “Because it would be stupid not to!” The aide adds that they still believe in Trump’s tariffs regime, though, citing the supposed advantage of “short-term pain” in exchange for long-term “prosperity.”
Progressive Furniture has become one of the first U.S. companies to announce that they’ll be shutting down and laying off all 30 employees by year’s end – citing tariffs on their source factory. It comes as the economist whose work inspired Trump’s tariff plan says the White House got it ‘wrong’.
Progressive Furniture is a branch of Sauder Woodworking located in Claremont, North Carolina. They’re the world’s seventh-largest furniture manufacturer, selling their wares at Walmart, Target, and Home Depot.
https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/major-furniture-store-announces-closure-1077403
